Анализ рынка PE Китая (7 января)

Internal stocks of petrochemical products: The stocks of polyolefins at Sinopec and PetroChina amounted to 610,000 tons, which is 50,000 tons less than yesterday.

Spot market analysis for PE: Today, the domestic PE market continued its upward trend. In Northern China, prices for linear, high-density, low-density film, and low-density fiber grades increased compared to yesterday, with overall price fluctuations ranging from 50 to 350 yuan per ton.

In Eastern China, only the price of low-density film grades remained stable, while prices for linear, high-density, and low-density fiber grades increased to varying degrees, with price increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan per ton. In Southern China, prices for linear, high-density, low-density film, and low-density fiber grades also showed an upward trend, with price adjustments ranging from 50 to 150 yuan per ton.

Under the influence of positive dynamics in the futures market, trading activity in the PE market increased, and the overall sentiment was optimistic. Currently, market prices show a trend of differentiated adjustment, with most manufacturers preferring to maintain stable ex-factory prices, while only a few companies raised prices, with adjustments ranging from 20 to 400 yuan per ton.

Traders closely monitored market trends, actively raising prices. However, actual transactions have not yet been fully realized, and negotiations remain the main method, gradually pushing market prices upward. Speculative sentiment intensified, and enthusiasm for price increases significantly supported the market.

Nevertheless, the growth of orders at processing plants remained weak, and end-users mainly replenished their stocks to meet current needs, which did not provide effective fundamental support for market growth.

Spot market forecast for PE: In the futures market, the L2605 contract showed a volatile upward trend during night trading. Prices fell sharply in the morning session but recovered strongly in the afternoon, remaining at a high level of fluctuations.

Macroeconomic factors provided some support to the sentiment in the polyethylene market, but the weak demand situation remained unchanged, leading to a market showing divergence characterized by "warm sentiment but insufficient fundamental support." Traders followed market trends and shipped goods accordingly. Low-priced resources sold relatively smoothly as they met the purchasing expectations of processors.

However, processing plants generally resisted high-priced resources, leading to weak overall stock replenishment. Plastic packaging manufacturers suffered from the off-season for end-consumer demand, resulting in a significant reduction in orders and maintaining only small-scale, necessary production. Manufacturers of plastic auto parts experienced slow order inflows due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes of automobiles, keeping capacity utilization levels low.

Manufacturers of daily-use plastic products faced the end of the retail inventory replenishment cycle, significantly slowing their raw material purchases. On the supply side, the Shanghai Petrochemical plant restarted its PE production unit today. Although market stocks decreased compared to yesterday, considering the overall industry capacity utilization level and capacity base, potential supply pressure was not significantly alleviated.

Overall, the main contradiction in the current market lies in the mismatch between supply and demand. Short-term impulses from macroeconomic sentiment are insufficient to offset the reality of weak end-consumer demand. The polyethylene market is expected to show a range-bound trading pattern in the short term.

Key market prices for PE:

Futures analysis for PE: On January 7, L2605 opened at 6595, reached a high of 6666, a low of 6581, held 505,678 contracts, and closed at 6625, an increase of 103 compared to the previous settlement of 6522. The daily trading volume was 566,498 lots, with total funds amounting to 2.351 billion yuan and a net inflow of 12.14 million yuan.

Domestic PE indices: According to TuDuoDuo data, on January 7, the domestic spot index for HDPE was 7114, up by 7; the spot index for LDPE film was 8556, up by 150; and the spot index for LLDPE was 6573, up by 63.

Shenhua auction statistics: Today's auction volume for linear polyethylene was 800 tons, with a transaction volume of 650 tons. Today's auction volume for high-density polyethylene was 0 tons, with a transaction volume of 0 tons. Today's auction volume for low-density polyethylene was 0 tons, with a transaction volume of 0 tons.

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