Макроэкономический индекс 20 марта: Внутренние цены на нефть упали и рынок недвижимости стабилизировался; сосуществование международной политики процентных ставок и региональных конфликтов показало свое влияние

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. On the evening of 19th, the oil price was lowered 11 yuan to fill up 1 tank of oil

2. Henan issued the "20 Financial Measures" to comprehensively help boost consumption

3. The effect of the property market to stop falling and stabilize may gradually appear, and the valuation of the industry may rise

4. The intensity and rhythm of monetary policy regulation and control are more flexible

5. China's 30-year treasury bond futures hit a new low, and institutions actively adjusted their strategies to cope with changes in the bond market

 International News

1. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "hold the bullet" and keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

2. Eurozone inflation has been revised downwards to add justification for the ECB to cut interest rates

3. Russian official: It will be very difficult for US companies to return to Russia

4. Trump said that he did not talk about aid to Ukraine in the phone call with Putin

5. Ecuador's oil pipeline system is in a state of emergency

Domestic News

1. On the evening of 19th, the oil price was lowered 11 yuan to fill up 1 tank of oil

On the 19th, it was learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that the specific situation of the oil price adjustment is as follows: domestic gasoline and diesel were reduced by 280 yuan and 270 yuan per ton respectively. The national average: No. 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.22 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline is reduced by 0.23 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel is reduced by 0.23 yuan per liter. Filling up a 50L tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost 11 yuan less. In the logistics industry, heavy trucks with a monthly run of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will be reduced by about 408 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.

2. Henan issued the "20 Financial Measures" to comprehensively help boost consumption

The Henan Supervision Bureau of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, together with the Financial Office of the Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Provincial Department of Commerce, recently jointly issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support to Expand Consumption", proposing 20 specific measures to promote financial institutions to actively connect with government departments at all levels, strengthen the coordination of various pro-consumption policies and financial products, and comprehensively help consumption boosting actions. The "20 Financial Measures" cover many livelihood fields such as automobiles, housing, housekeeping, cultural tourism, and agriculture.

3. The effect of the property market to stop falling and stabilize may gradually appear, and the valuation of the industry may rise

According to the research report of China Galaxy Securities, the year-on-year decline in cumulative sales area and sales amount was significantly narrower than that of the previous month from January to February 2025, and the year-on-year decline in development investment decreased significantly. The 2025 government work report proposes to "stabilize the property market" and "continue to vigorously promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", and elaborate on the key work directions from the aspects of demand release, supply control, stock revitalization, financing support, and new models development. Galaxy Securities believes that the effect of the property market to stop falling and stabilize may gradually appear, and the valuation of the industry may rise. The leading real estate companies have financial advantages in showing excellent operation and management capabilities, and their market share is expected to further rise.

4. The intensity and rhythm of monetary policy regulation and control are more flexible

Recently, the positive formulation of monetary policy has attracted widespread attention in the market. Experts said that there is still plenty of room for monetary policy, and the follow-up will be combined with changes in the domestic and foreign economic and financial situation, in terms of total amount, structure, interest rates, etc., reasonable balance, coordinated efforts, the formation of a policy "combination fist" effect, to support the real economy to rebound. Experts said that the RRR cut should be flexible to grasp the timing and give full play to the maximum policy effectiveness. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of MUCFC, said that in the next step, relevant departments may study and introduce supportive policies for consumer finance and other fields, such as creating structural monetary policy tools to support and boost consumption, giving lower-cost financial support to financial institutions that issue con sumer credit, and guiding financial institutions to reasonably adjust the actual interest rate and rate of consumer credit.

5. China's 30-year treasury bond futures hit a new low, and institutions actively adjusted their strategies to cope with changes in the bond market

In just over a month, the bullish expectations of the bond market have reversed, and many institutions have actively adjusted their investment strategies to respond cautiously to market fluctuations. The person in charge of fixed income investment of an institution said that after the Spring Festival this year, the company adjusted its investment portfolio, reduced the allocation of long-term bonds, continued to optimize the structure of short-term bond allocation, and increased the allocation ratio of equity assets. A large private equity firm in Shanghai also believes that under the joint promotion of policies, the domestic economy is expected to recover significantly this year, the downward trend of long-term bond market yields is difficult to maintain, and the stock market performance will be stronger than the bond market, so the private equity has also adjusted its investment strategy.

International News

1. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "hold the bullet" and keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

On Wednesday, March 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously adopted a decision on the interest rate, deciding to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations. The announcement said that the Japanese economy has recovered moderately, although some areas are still weak; Prices for services continued to rise modestly, and inflation expectations rose. In terms of outlook risks, the report said that uncertainties about the Japanese economy and prices remain high, including the progress of overseas economic activities. It is necessary to pay close attention to the development of the financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japanese economic activity and prices, and exchange rate changes are more likely to affect prices than in the past. The report predicts that the Japanese economy will continue to grow at a rate higher than potential, and that the overseas economy will continue to grow modestly, while the virtuous cycle between income and expenditure will gradually strengthen against the backdrop of loose financial conditions and other factors.

2. Eurozone inflation has been revised downwards to add justification for the ECB to cut interest rates

Eurozone inflation slowed more than flash estimates in February, adding to the ECB's case for continuing to cut interest rates. Eurozone CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in February, lower than the preliminary 2.4% released by Eurostat. Correction on Wednesday came after an unexpected downward revision to Germany's inflation rate. Amid uncertainty about the European economy and inflation outlook, ECB officials are debating whether to hold or cut interest rates again next month, and they are likely to focus on the clear progress made towards the 2% inflation target. Economists surveyed still expect the central bank to cut rates twice, in April and June. Markets are also inclined to price two more rate cuts before the end of the year, but are conflicted about the outcome of next month's meeting.

3. Russian official: It will be very difficult for US companies to return to Russia

According to CCTV News, Dmitriev, the special representative of the Russian President in charge of foreign investment and economic cooperation and the President of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said in Moscow on the 18th that it will be very difficult for American companies to return to Russia. According to TASS, Dmitriev said in an interview on the sidelines of the plenary session of the Russian Federation of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs that day that the best option for American companies that want to return to Russia is to establish joint ventures with Russian companies that have already succeeded.

4. Trump said that he did not talk about aid to Ukraine in the phone call with Putin

U.S. President Trump told U.S. media on the 18th that he did not talk about aid to Ukraine in his phone call with Russian President Putin. In an interview with Fox News on the same day, Trump said that he and Putin "talked a lot about things" but "did not discuss the issue of aid."

5. Ecuador's oil pipeline system is in a state of emergency

On March 18, local time, the Ecuadorian National Oil Company issued an announcement that the Ecuadorian oil pipeline system entered a state of emergency due to a landslide affecting the oil pipeline and causing an oil spill. The state of emergency will last no more than 60 days, and its main purpose is to allow the national oil company to take all necessary actions and allocate all necessary resources to minimize the impact of force majeure events on hydrocarbon exploration, extraction, transportation and marketing operations by entering into contracts for required labor, services, goods and equipment.

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